There are many ways to measure market cycles and the business cycle, however economics is not an exact science. One of the methods that can be used alongside measuring of the yield curve is the output gap. The output gap is the difference between actual and potential economic production. It allows economists and investors to
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Earnings are the biggest driver of stock prices and valuation. This doesn’t imply companies are the sole determinants of their stock prices. Issues like geopolitics, the weather, and the economy get filed under systematic risk factors. These are the factors that are talked about in the news so much because they apply to all companies.
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Valuation is the method of determining what an asset is worth. The price, on any given day of a stock, is how the market is valuing that asset. Your ability to look at various metrics when coming up with a valuation will determine if you can do a better job than the market at determining
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The election of President-elect Donald Trump last month has awakened, what some people are calling, the “animal spirits” of capitalism. Anyone with a 401k or money in the stock market could tell you that things are going very well at the moment. The election of President-elect Trump and conservative, pro-market Republican majorities in the House
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