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December 21, 2017 in Economics

The Economy Is Approaching A Recession

There are many ways to measure market cycles and the business cycle, however economics is not an exact science. One of the methods that can be used alongside measuring of the yield curve is the output gap. The output gap is the difference between actual and potential economic production. It allows economists and investors to determine what point the economy is at in the business cycle. When the output is above potential, the economy starts to overheat, causing inflation. When output is below potential, the economy isn’t growing as fast as it could, possibly because of a recession. To make… Keep Reading

October 15, 2017October 15, 2017 in Economics

Are Corporate Earnings Affected Adversely By Hurricanes?

Earnings are the biggest driver of stock prices and valuation. This doesn’t imply companies are the sole determinants of their stock prices. Issues like geopolitics, the weather, and the economy get filed under systematic risk factors. These are the factors that are talked about in the news so much because they apply to all companies. It’s important to have a balance between reviewing the macroeconomic conditions and the company’s specific fundamentals. If you focus too much on the macro issues, you might miss out on companies that are doing well in spite of the macro challenges. Trends and headline issues… Keep Reading

October 4, 2017October 4, 2017 in Economics

Is The US Stock Market Overvalued?

Valuation is the method of determining what an asset is worth. The price, on any given day of a stock, is how the market is valuing that asset. Your ability to look at various metrics when coming up with a valuation will determine if you can do a better job than the market at determining what an asset is worth. If you can outwit the market, you make profits. If you can’t, you underperform the market or lose money. Some methods of stock valuation are the following: price to earnings (PE) multiple versus growth, earnings yield versus fixed income yields,… Keep Reading

January 7, 2017 in Economics/News/Politics

The Trump Rally: Stocks Fly High As Confidence Surges

The election of President-elect Donald Trump last month has awakened, what some people are calling, the “animal spirits” of capitalism. Anyone with a 401k or money in the stock market could tell you that things are going very well at the moment. The election of President-elect Trump and conservative, pro-market Republican majorities in the House and Senate represents a turning of the page from eight years of growing tax burden, government spending, and red tape. The Trump Rally, as some pundits are calling it, has resulted in the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumping 1,600 points since 2016’s election day. Such… Keep Reading