It looks like the Libertarian Party will end the 2016 election cycle will end the way it has ended nearly every other presidential cycle: embarrassed, having failed to get any significant share of the vote, and on its way back to the drawing board.
That prediction was back in July, in my first piece for The Liberty Conservative.
As it turns out, this prediction is coming true. In a campaign that has become known less for spreading the message of small government and more for Nazi cakes, humiliating ignorance on foreign policy, and mentally unhinged rants at reporters, Gary Johnson is about to fail at the only goal even his biggest skeptics expected him to reach: getting 5% of the vote nationally.
According to the latest RealClearPolitics polling average, the Aleppo-challenged governor is polling at only 4.7% in national four-way polls. This is devastating for Johnson, who was flirting with 9.2% support as late as mid-September.
As the trail of tears of negative polling continues for Johnson, it is increasingly likely that he will underperform this quickly falling average and fail to reach the 5% threshold necessary to secure public funding for the Libertarian Party in the 2020 election.
If Johnson fails to get 5% of the vote, his campaign will be a completely embarrassing failure for the party, and they deserve every bit of it for nominating Gary Johnson and Bill Weld.
How did we get here?
The fact that Gary Johnson is not a libertarian is the biggest problem with his candidacy. His ideological inconsistency on issues like freedom of association have made it very difficult for people to distinguish what “small government” means in concrete terms. Even when Johnson is given the opportunity to argue for the abolition of the income tax, he finds a way to bungle it. In a massively uncomfortable answer that could have almost been written by a comedian making a mockery of libertarians, Johnson instead pivots to talking about marijuana and leadership (a moment some have called Gary’s “weedership” moment.)
This isn’t Johnson’s first freakout in the public eye, either.
In an interview with Reason.com that took place around the time Johnson began sliding in the polls, he became unhinged about being asked whether or not he was a “spoiler candidate.”
There is, of course, the moment where he exploded on Guy Benson of Townhall.com for using the phrase “illegal immigrant.”
Behavior like this is not how a minor party gets taken seriously. Despite his flaws, one of the things that Austin Petersen did well was handle the media, even in high profile appearances like the one he did on Glenn Beck’s show. Gary, not so much.
Clinton Lite
As it becomes clearer that the Libertarian ticket will not, in fact, reach even 5% in the polls, vice presidential nominee Bill Weld has revealed his true motivations this election cycle: get Hillary Clinton, his old friend, elected president of the United States.
In a truly strange press conference delivered on October 26, Weld issued a statement attacking Donald Trump (and staying silent on Clinton) that concluded with the following:
In the final days of this very close race, every citizen must be aware of the power and responsibility of each individual vote. This is not the time to cast a jocular or feel-good vote for a man whom you may have briefly found entertaining. Donald Trump should not, cannot, and must not be elected President of the United States.
This statement was validation for what many Weld critics have believed all along- that he is, in fact, an opportunist using the Libertarian Party for the benefit of the Clinton campaign.
In the days following the announcement that the FBI was re-opening the investigation into Hillary Clinton’s illegal email server, Johnson and Weld just couldn’t help themselves. Johnson took to TV to give yet another awkward interview where he described Clinton as the “president elect” and asked a CNN host to make his case for him.
Weld took it a step further. He decried the FBI’s statement as “disgraceful” and said that he was “outraged” by the decision to investigate Clinton’s possible wrongdoing.
Ramifications
Johnson and Weld may have not realized it yet, but by aligning themselves so closely with the Clinton, they cost themselves “big league,” so to speak. Hillary is collapsing in the polls nationally and in battleground states, and the prospect of a Trump presidency is becoming more and more realistic by the day. Even Johnson’s own supporters are growing frustrated with their candidate and are breaking largely for Trump in the final days of the campaign.
The Libertarian Party had an opportunity to present the American voters with a clear choice this cycle: a ticket that was consistently pro-freedom and could articulate those goals and policies.
Instead, they nominated a ticket that apologized for Hillary Clinton at every turn, botched media appearances left and right, and reinforced the stereotype of libertarians as foreign policy ignoramuses who only care about “dude, weed.”
The LP has some work to do for 2020. And, as Gary Johnson flounders, it becomes increasingly likely they will have to do that work without federal funding.
Gary’s Fail = Still checked more “conservative” boxes than “Trump’s success” =D
I think on social issues he seems to be on this of the left to knock down state and local laws instead of limiting federal power over states rights. It is really Trump that has a life time of positions on the left and changes because he wants Republican votes.
Trump is a greater threat to the Fed than all the libertarians over the last 40 years put together.
That’s why he always mentions it, like all the other things he always mentions… you know you can count on what he says… cuzz he never flip flops on serious biz guys! =D
I can’t have a 100% guarantee with anything. Trump is a roll of the dice. But there is a side of the die that he has that no one else does. And it reads “destroy the establishment”
Why would he do that after he’s surrounded himself with them? LOL
The same people he’s surrounded himself with as a businessman are now screaming that he’s the next Hitler.
That’s just because he has a limited if any, understanding of the Constitution LOL
Adding LOL to the end of every comment doesnt hide the fact that you shift goal posts every time you’re wrong and have no argument.
Not refuting his limited knowledge of the Constitution inspires confidence….. LOL
You said he’ll destroy the establishment, I pointed out how he’s surrounded himself with them.
You try to use his untrustworthy past with business past partners as a pro and I give a clear reason why they call him the next Hitler.
You make fun of muh LOL’s =D
I assume you follow this page cuzz you consider yourself conservative or like to argue with them… may I ask for your “Conservative Trump Sales Pitch”?
I said there’s a possibility that he destroys the establishment. You pointed out that he’s surrounded himself with them. I pointed out that it was when he was in business, and now in politics, the same people don’t like him. Even think he’s Hitler. You responded that it was because of his lack of understanding of the constitution. Since none of the candidates have a solid grasp of the constitution, then they are all obviously Hitler. But the people who we are addressing who think he’s Hitler, sure don’t think he’s Hitler because he doesn’t understand muh constitution. LOL
Trump = Hitler memes hit peak dankness directly after he says shit like…. journalist have too much first amendment protections or banning people based on religion… I personally like the ones involving the second amendment =P
All the major news networks are owned by a small number of elites who are politically connected to the establishment. That’s who the founding fathers had in mind when the first amendment was written right? And we should ban people who are hardcore practitioners of Islam. It’s a political system that’s less in line with my libertarian sensibilities than the one we are currently burdened with.
Why do you hate freedom bro? LOL
Not an argument.
Resorting to lousy memes just shows you don’t have the stamina.
Luckily…… I’m not treating this mental circle jerk as a presidential run, huh?
If you’re a Gary Johnson supporter, then you actually are. You’re just going to lose badly while doing it.
Vote Nobody 2016… cuzz I don’t need a master and accept as much blame for this mess as the Amish do gas prices =D
So this whole time you’ve been arguing in favor of wielding zero influence. Well played.
I argue many positions that I don’t hold as my own… keeps me from getting a sun burn in the echo chambers =)
There was a real opportunity for LP that was squandered.
Everything now is just silly and he was the place where you coild vote for someone who is not a crook or bully a least evil but even if he agrees with the left that a moral society society is oppressive but al least is for a free society on the big picture.
How did he get the Libertarian Party nomination anyway? Seriously, it’s not a snarky rhetorical question. How did that process work? Did he duped the Libertairan Party or is the really that many people in the Libertarian hiarchy that really are not libertarains?
I just never could warm to this guy. Loved Ron Paul but the more GJ speaks the more I realize he doesn’t hold many libertarian stances, or at least conservative libertarian stances. Trump makes more libertarian cases (drain the swamp speech).
Which ones do you disagree with?
https://www.facebook.com/libertarians/photos/a.10150126121157726.302978.5978057725/10154663067462726/?type=3&theater
I’m voting for Trump, but Johnson is an honest guy and would make a good President. Unfortunately, he has severely dipped in the polls to below 5% as of today and I don’t see the point in voting for him.
No he’s not
He is still a hell of a lot better than the two front running democrats.
Amen brother thats what im saying
I liked the other libertarian he was up against (Peterson) he didn’t get the nod probably cuz of his pro life stance….Gary Johnson isn’t a libertarian……he is a pragmatist “well, we tried it this way and it didn’t work, and the other way,….so let’s do it the libertarian way”….true libertarians r super pumped about him…..his views don’t come from a “clear line in the sand belief system”….it’s more of a “I will pick the good sides of both parties and that should go it”…….the movement is growing inspire of him….not because of him
And Donald is a Republican? Not. It’s so sad that people choose our representatives based on party alliance, gender, religion, color, etc. So, what about integrity, experience, and vision. I do hope that voters just wake up before they go to the polls and think about our children’s future! Our Constitution protects our democracy but it can’t protect us from ourselves.
Johnson and Weld are the only two candidates who have the guts to talk about our $19 Trillion budget deficit and failed policies here and abroad. They have actual experience as former Republican governors of Democratic leaning states to work across party lines to help stop the partisan gridlock in Washington!
I won’t waste my vote on either of the major party crooks or clowns and I’ll sleep well knowing the I haven’t contributed to continued crony capitalism or corruption!
How did he blow it when the two corrupt parties and their media outlets wouldnt even invite Gary Johnson???
By making a number of communication missteps and by alienating a big chunk of the disenfranchised electorate.
Sure, he had everything against him, but he could have easily made a better job.
The Libertarians realy missed a great opportunity. The again so did the Republicans.
Gray Johnson is clearly the better choice between the other two Lying Donald and Crooked Hillary!I dont care what you say.
If you want to throw your vote for more TYRANNY sure go ahead vote for Lying Donald or Crooked Hillary
No Sexual Assault Allegations No Pay Scandals No Mental or Physical Issues No Phony Charities No Acussations of Fraud Can Lying Donald or Crooked Hillary Say The Same???
I’m calling bullshit.
I’m voting for him, don’t blame him or his supporters that most of America is fucking dumb enough to vote for Trump and Hilary.
Gary Johnson confirms my decision to ditch the LP every time he opens his mouth. And he’s no aberration – he IS the Libertarian Party. A brain-dead stoner and anti Christian bigot. They should just change their name to the Angry Atheists’ Weed and Porn Party. It’s sad too because this could’ve really been the LP’s year.
This page sucks, goodbye
ain’t america great! seeeee ya!
again!
BOTTOM LINE:
If you’re for dishonesty, vote for either Donald or Hillary. For war and increased destabilization worldwide, vote for Hillary. If you want a fascist pig that will con & rape us, it’s Donald. If you buy what the major parties are selling and for the status quo, then vote for either of their candidates. If you want real change in Washington, a defense based foreign policy, efficient government and reforms, term limits, and transparency, then vote for honest Johnson/Weld.
You can vote for either Hillary or for Donald but understand what you’re getting. Hillary = manipulative lies, crony capitalism, and increased military operations to further destabilize our world and threaten our security. Donald = liar, con, bigot, fascist, chauvinist pig, and a whiner who’s platform is based on building walls!
No thank you! I’ll vote for Johnson/Weld. I’ll vote for honesty and integrity. I’ll vote for experience in working across party lines as re-elected Republican governors in Democratic majority states to reform our grossly inefficient and partisan government…and I’ll sleep well knowing that I didn’t take part in corruption.
If it weren’t for Bill Weld, I might have voted for Johnson. That is, until he opened his mouth.